I'm definitely a bit late getting this posted as I have been focused on improving the model itself, preparing and responding to questions about my CHSAA proposal as well as hosting a regional meet and trying to run my primary business at the same time and still have a family and a life.
I think the model itself is in its final form. I made some mathematical tweaks and ran a series of backtests to see how different methodologies improve accuracy. This final model predicted league results with 92% accuracy. When you consider how frequently a kid has a bad day or a breakthrough performance that can't be predicted by historical analysis, 92% is insanely accurate. I believed in this model and the methodology behind it, but that is considerably more accurate than I had hoped.
I have not completed a full analysis of regionals, how the model predicted regional results, etc. But I do have final state rankings below (less than 24 hours before the meets starts.) This update also includes results from the week from the 12th through the 17th as well as regionals. As expected, Regional performances represent the best result for 60% of the state participants in the model. For the sake of my discussion, I'll focus more on the factors impacting the state meet than on movement in the rankings.
In 5A boys, Ritz takes over the top spot in the individual rankings. I know this will surprise some people but it may reflect the fact that Hassan hasn't gone all out since Pat Patten when he appeared to be chasing the meet record. I won't be surprised if Hassan runs away with this in spite of the rankings. If that doesn't happen the race should be fairly tight with 11 runners within 25 seconds of Ritz's top adjusted time. On the team side it appears to be a 3 team race. Niwot has 73, Vista 98 and Castle View 111. There is a large gap to Arapahoe at 4 and 4-9 are separated by about 50 points.
In 5A girls, Ella McGowan finally surpassed Madison Lange's liberty bell performance at region 2 and did so by a LOT. The model has McGowans performance 23 seconds faster than Lange's and Vancik is right behind Lange. My question is whether Lange has more left in the tank and we just havent seen it since Liberty Bell or if the tide has really turned and its now McGowan's race to lose. On the team side Niwot took back over the top spot as their regional performance has them putting 5 in the top 20. It does look like a two team race with Niwot at 75, Boulder at 116 and Fairview at 169 and Heritage close behind. Heritage had some early performances that make it look like they could contend as well. And Boulder is pretty dependent upon the health of Calia Vaughn.
Oli Horton takes back over the top spot in 4A boys after regionals but the model has the top 5 within 12 seconds. Similar to Hassan in 5A, this might not be close if we haven't seen Horton go all out recently. His performance last year at state suggests that might be the case. Palmer Ridge appears to be making this a two team race for the team title as they are the only team within 70 of Summit. But 3-7 are separated by only 30 points so there could be a lot of shuffling in there.
TCA appears to be pulling away in the 4A girls team race but this might be the best team race in the big classifications. Only 47 points separate 4th ranked Summit from TCA, with Steamboat and Air Academy nearly tied for 2nd in the middle. If Summit's 4 and 5 step up big, this could be an incredibly exciting team race. On the individual side, Brynn Torres seems like the class of 4A and it hasn't been close for much of the year. The model gives her a 26 second gap on Vivian Jack.
In 3A boys, Salida has held the top spot since briefly losing it to Manitou for a week, but the lead is only 28 and 30 points over Moffat County and Manitou so we could have a battle here as well. Jonas Pressgrove leads individually but Ethan Merrick's Liberty Bell performance is still holding second. I have the exact same questions about Merrick that I do about Madison Lange in 5A... is there another pop coming.
3A girls has a canyon separating Delaney Reuter from the field. I dont see that race being remotely close. Teams in 3A girls are pretty evenly distributed by about 30 points each in the 4, so we could get some shakeup but not a lot, the last spot in the top 5 is totally up for grabs.
In 2A Boys it looks like Golden View, Estes and then a logjam from 3-10. 30 points is separating each of those and with only 4 scoring, that might be a pretty solid gap. I dont think Anthony Herre has lost to any 2A competition all year and I dont expect that to change either, hes got a 26 second lead in the model.
2A Girls might actually have the most exciting team race with Heritage Christian, Thomas McLaren and Ridgeway separated by only 6 points. This is the first ranking where I only scored 4 runners instead of 5. Taya Wren appears to have a commanding lead in the individual race.
Enjoy the top 10 teams and individuals in each class and please start sharing this website with friends in the Colorado HS running world. Im open to any feedback you have on this and I also have much deeper regional rankings and team analysis for anyone who wants to reach out to me. Feel free to email feedback@truexcr.com.
© 2026 True XC Rankings LLC. All rights reserved. True XC Rankings’ original rankings, analysis, methodology, commentary, graphics, and other original content may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, or used for commercial purposes without prior written permission.
All opinions and commentary expressed on this site are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or positions of the author’s employer, any team or organization the author coaches or is affiliated with, or any other organization.